Polish job market retains its strength despite waning eurozone

19 Feb 2019

coinsWages in the enterprise sector in January increased by 7.5% year-on-year, a figure near ING’s forecast of 7.3% and exceeding the market consensus of 6.7%.

This data contrasts with the December reading, which revealed that wages in the sector grew by 6.1%. Statistical effects in retail trade and a lower contribution from bonus payments in the mining sector when compared with 2017 had been the main cause. These effects came to an end in January. Additionally, as ING reports, the overall aggregate rose by 0.4 percentage points due to a higher minimum wage increase than in 2018.

ING forecast wages to stabilise in the 7.0-7.5% YoY range. The National Bank of Poland Survey revealed that 48.6% of enterprises are considering wage hikes, which is significantly higher when compared with the 39.4% recorded last year.

Meanwhile, enterprise employment saw modest growth, rising from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY and climbing above the market consensus of 1.8%.

This data suggests the eurozone’s slowdown had only mildly impacted the domestic labour market. Poland was revealed to be the only economy where the number of firms announcing labour shortages did not decrease in Q4 2018 when compared with the previous quarter, according to the European commission’s survey among manufacturing sector companies. Therefore, a moderation in employment growth fuelled by a labour shortage is expected in the future.